Although the majority of coal-fired power stations in Australia are projected to shut down by the 2030s, a research group based in the UK, Cornwall Insight, forecasts that the final closure may not occur until the 2050s.

In an exclusive interview with PV Tech, Thomas Fitzsimons, a senior modeller at Cornwall Insight, highlighted that despite Australia’s significant advancements in boosting renewable energy production—such as the National Electricity Market (NEM) incorporating 1.2GW of large-scale solar PV within a year—coal-fired power is expected to maintain its position in the energy mix for the coming decades.

According to a recent study by Cornwall Insight, there is a possibility that coal-fired power plants might continue operating past the full withdrawal date of 2038 as predicted by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Kane Thornton, the CEO of the Clean Energy Council (CEC), shared exclusively with PV Tech at the recent All-Energy Australia 2024 conference that the AEMO’s projection aligns with the timeframe that the CEC is currently aiming for.

The forecasted prolongation of coal-fired power generation by Cornwall Insight is mainly attributed to concerns regarding workforce shortages and the absence of the “essential renewable energy infrastructure.” This infrastructure is not expected to be constructed rapidly enough to substitute the lost capacity from coal-fired plants.

“Fitzsimons informed PV Tech that although a significant number of coal-fired generators are expected to be decommissioned in the 2030s, a portion will continue operating into the 2040s, with the final closure of the last coal-fired generator not anticipated until the 2050s.”

It is important to highlight that rooftop solar PV will surpass coal-fired power generation by the conclusion of 2024.

Queensland to lead Australia’s energy transition

Fitzsimons has forecasted a significant shift in renewable energy capacity for Queensland in the coming years, projecting an increase from approximately 50% currently to about 83% by 2035.

The transition will primarily be fueled by the shutdown of coal-fired power plants, alongside the substantial expansion of renewable energy initiatives already in progress within the state. PV Tech recently disclosed that solar PV systems have been set up on more than half of Queensland’s residences, as per information from the non-profit organization, the Climate Council.

Queensland has championed rooftop solar PV and implemented diverse government assistance to accelerate its expansion. For example, in June 2024, the state government established two Local Renewable Energy Zones (LREZ) in Townsville and Caloundra.

Nevertheless, Fitzsimons pointed out that the research group’s forecasts “might need to be reassessed” in light of the recent state election, which resulted in the right-wing Liberal National Party (LNP) of Queensland, led by David Crisafulli, being elected to govern. The shift in government leadership has sparked inquiries about the direction of Queensland’s energy policy, including its commitment to the mandated renewable energy objectives and the phasing out of coal-fired power.