Australia: Rooftop solar PV to overtake coal-fired power by the end of 2024

The non-profit organization Climate Council has indicated that Australia, a global leader in rooftop solar PV installations, could increase its capacity by an additional 26.4 GW by the end of the decade, raising the total to 49.4 GW.

According to the organization’s recent report, “Seize the Sun,” released on September 19th, the installed capacity of rooftop solar PV is expected to surpass that of coal-fired generation by the end of this year.

At present, approximately 3.6 million Australian households have rooftop solar PV systems installed, providing them with an average annual saving of about AU$1,500 (US$1,021) each. This collectively amounts to Australian households saving around AU$3 billion annually.

Critical to increasing the installed capacity of rooftop solar PV is the promotion of adoption among additional family homes, social housing units, and businesses. Concerningly, the Climate Council’s report highlights that two-thirds of new homes are being constructed without a solar PV system, a trend that must be reversed to deliver cost-saving advantages and bolster the energy transition.

Monthly installation rates for solar PV continue to sit above the 250MW mark in Australia, with according to solar consultancy SunWiz. This was a 7% month-on-month decrease on the figures witnessed in July, achieving a record level for the mid-year interval.

According to the Climate Council’s report, the majority of businesses are not taking advantage of solar PV opportunities. The report states that nine out of 10 small businesses do not currently have solar PV systems installed. It further highlights that an office with 40 employees could potentially reduce its electricity bill by half by installing a 24kW solar PV system on the premises.

Certainly, progress and installations on public, commercial, and industrial structures have the potential to realize Australia’s aspirations of becoming a renewable energy powerhouse.

Australia possesses the capacity to install approximately 103GW of rooftop solar PV, which is four times the current capacity. This amount is 1.5 times greater than the capacity of utility-scale electricity generators in Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM), which supplies power to the entire east coast, South Australia, and Tasmania.

Energy storage and rooftop solar PV should be the ‘heart of Australia’s energy plans’

In order to sustain the encouraging momentum observed in the market, it is imperative for the Australian government to take further action and prioritize solar PV, along with battery energy storage, as central components of Australia’s national energy strategies. This sentiment aligns with the views of the national industry organization Energy Networks Australia (ENA), which has recently urged the Federal government to introduce suitable incentives to unleash a minimum of 5GW of extra rooftop solar PV generation capacity.

It is worth mentioning that the report from the Climate Council emphasizes the substantial impact of government incentives in driving the significant growth of rooftop solar PV systems over the past decade, resulting in a six-fold increase. Since 2020, the installed capacity of rooftop solar PV has more than doubled.

In order to complement the growing presence of rooftop solar PV on the grid, it is crucial to scale up battery energy storage to enable the grid to accommodate surplus clean energy generation. According to the Climate Council, an estimated 25GW of energy storage installations will be necessary for this purpose to be adequately achieved in the country.

The report has highlighted two specific strategies for battery energy storage: household and community-level batteries.

To fully leverage the advantages of a solar PV system, approximately two million additional homes and businesses need to install home batteries. Furthermore, the deployment of approximately 5,000 community-scale batteries, which distribute affordable solar power generated by nearby homes and businesses within the local community, could unlock further benefits.

Community batteries have gained increased popularity in Australia, as documented on our affiliated platform Energy-Storage.news over time. Recognizing the significant advantages of such systems, the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) has recently granted AU$143 million in funding for community battery energy storage installations through its inaugural Community Battery Funding Round 1 program. This initiative aims to deploy 370 community batteries across all states.

Queensland and New South Wales are set to receive the highest number of community batteries, with 69 and 95 installations, respectively. Following closely behind are Victoria with 37 batteries, Western Australia with 28, and South Australia with 24. Tasmania is slated to receive six batteries, while the Northern Territory will benefit from 16 installations.

The report emphasizes that the upfront costs associated with solar panels and batteries pose a significant challenge for many households. Given that half of Australians have savings below AU$1,000 and three-quarters are grappling with the rising cost of living, it is evident that households need support to navigate the financial burden of solar installations in the long term.

An effective solution to this issue is to offer zero or low-interest financing options, allowing households to adopt rooftop solar and batteries with minimal initial expenses. This approach enables them to gradually repay the investment using the savings accrued from reduced energy bills.

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